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Runaway Daily
US Navy sinking skeptics?
Posted on August 17, 2010 in Miscellaneous
Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus spoke at the Commonwealth Club of California in San Francisco this evening. He seemed to be avoiding controversial statements, but described how the Navy is planning to patrol an Arctic Ocean that is projected to be ice-free in about 25 years and is moving to cut fossil fuel use in half by 2020.
It occurs to me that it’s hard to see how an American, at least, can maintain a skeptic’s position in the face of these plans. Mablus, a former governor, stated these plans as unexceptional. They’re reviewed, and must be approved, by congressmen and senators of both parties. If any of them believe that climate change is not real, they are seriously derelict in approving Navy budgets of many tens of billions of dollar that are based on such considerations – and in not making these actions by the Navy a campaign issue.
Posted on June 27, 2010 in Miscellaneous
Stewart Brand hosts Climate Wars Q&A at The Green Arcade
A plug: The Green Arcade is the first San Francisco bookshop to sell my new book, Runaway! Buy it from them, to encourage the others.
The shirt says "Rad", not "Bad"
Climate Wars is an exciting new book by Gwynne Dyer, journalist and author. Climate Wars describes potential military conflicts as climate change “heats up” issues of water sharing, food security, and border control for countries worldwide. The book also, though, offers a snapshot of the current understanding of climate change and our future in top military, government, and scientific circles worldwide. It’s not a pretty picture.
Stewart Brand, famous for the Whole Earth Catalog in the 1960s and 70s, is head of Global Business Network (GBN) and the Long Now Foundation. Dyer provides analysis and consulting for GBN. So Brand hosted Dyer’s Q&A and book signing at The Green Arcade, the famous green and sustainability bookshop on the central part of Market Street, southwest of the Civic Center.
MIT in Journal of Climate: 10°F Warming by 2100
Posted on June 21, 2010 in What is RCC
An MIT report says the world is on track to get much warmer, much faster. An increase of +9F this century is predicted – nearly 1F per decade. This is on top of the 1F increase seen between pre-industrial times to 2000, for total global warming of 10F by 2011.
MITers and "roulette wheel" of temperature increases
Total warming of 10F means a very different world, one in which the natural world is decimated and feeding current and projected populations is impossible.
The report, which was the subject of stories earlier this year, has just been published in the prestigious Journal of Climate. If the report is correct, the survival of most people on Earth is at risk. A 10F warmer planet will support many billions fewer people, and with a transition period quite possibly marked by massive war and conflict. Any steps that save many lives are likely to be so draconian as to feel like wartime, even if implemented as benignly as possible.
Commented on “The Atlantic”
Posted on March 22, 2010 in Miscellaneous
Let’s see – this is the only large representative, rather than parliamentary, democracy; and, it’s the greatest country in the world. Coincidence?
The Dems were brave today. Whether they were also smart remains to be seen. But if you note the vociferous defence of every last dime of Medicare and Medicaid spending by Republicans (!) just lately, you have to guess they were smart indeed.
Originally posted as a comment
by floydsm8
on The Atlantic using DISQUS.
Ecology Emerges
Posted on March 19, 2010 in Attended
Tonight was #1 in the Ecology Emerges series
held in Oakland, led by Chris Carlsson and his SF history project, Shaping San Francisco. This is a great series; see upcoming dates here.
The theme was the Evolution of Eco-Activism, “Following the compelling shift from conservation to environmentalism to environmental/social justice over the last half-century”, with Jerry Mander (International Forum on Globalization), Karen Pickett (Bay Area Coalition for Headwaters), and Carla Pérez (Movement Generation).
Chris showed an evocative new 10-minute film, then there was a valuable panel talk. Jerry Mander said that things have gone so far that we need systemic changes and worldview changes, but that localization and sufficiency will be crucial. Karen Pickett talked about the Headwaters campaign and the importance of direct action.
Arctic Methane Leak: But I Feel Fine*
Posted on March 5, 2010 in Hotspots
The world has had a hard time accepting the dangers of global warming, let alone the possibility of tipping points, whose exact characteristics need further research. But scientists and advocates have also mentioned, somewhat tentatively, that there might well be other risks we incur as the world warms – “unknown unknowns”, in Rumsfeldian terms.
Now a large “unknown unknown” has reared its very ugly head. The oceans of the world routinely release methane, from a variety of processes, as do the soils. A new paper, published today in the journal Science, reports that the East Siberian Arctic Ice Shelf, a 2 million square mile area of the Arctic Sea north of Siberia, is releasing as much methane as the rest of the world’s oceans combined. According to Dr. Natalia Shakhova, lead author of the paper, the release is about 7 teragams, or about 7 million tonnes, of methane annually.
Why “Runaway”?
in What is RCC
“Runaway climate change” is what happens when global warming becomes self-sustaining. A global warming spiral kicks in if:
- The environment absorbs less CO2. About 50% of our current emissions are absorbed by the environment – roughly half of that by the oceans, the other half by plants on land. This uptake of CO2 by the environment may already be in decline.
- Reflection of sunlight drops. As snow and ice cover retreat – as cover is smaller in geographic extent, or seasonal cover lasts for less of the year – dark ground and even darker water are exposed, which absorb sunlight, further warming the earth.
- More CO2 and methane are emitted from nature. Soils, forests, peat, the seas, organic deposits in permafrost, and methane clathrates all emit some CO2 and methane. As the environment warms, “natural” emissions increase.
